The pandemic is not a black swan event, it was...
by Doyle Ranstrom on Sep 20, 2020
As of the day I write this, the pandemic has led to over 199,000 deaths in the US and almost 7 million confirmed cases. Tomorrow, both of these numbers will be higher.
The economic cost is in the trillions and growing. Some political leaders and their followers say the pandemic is a black swan event.
The pandemic is not a black swan event, and this from the author of the 2007 bestseller "The Black Swan" Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In a paper, he co-authored on January 26th, 2020, issued a warning the coronavirus could lead to a pandemic. In an interview, he was quoted as saying governments “did not want to spend pennies in January; now they are going to spend trillions.”
Many of these same political leaders and their followers say the pandemic was unforeseeable. This is blatantly false. The following are just a few of the warnings which predicted the risk of a pandemic.
- Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine in 2005 that, "This is a critical point in our history. Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic. We must act now with decisiveness and purpose." His 2017 book, "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs" detailed the increasing risk.
- In May 2006 the Homeland Security Council prepared "National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan which was announced by President George W. Bush. President Bush stated in a cover letter in May 2006 the Plan was "a comprehensive approach to addressing the threat of pandemic influenza".
- In 2006, epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant whose work with WHO helped eradicate smallpox gave a Ted Talk entitled "My wish: Help me stop pandemics".
- In a 2006 Flu Pandemic Preparedness Plan, prepared by Massachusetts public health officials projected that as many as 2 million people could become ill using models prepared by the CDC at that time.
- Bill Gates did a Ted Talk in 2015 entitled "The next outbreak? Were not ready".
- In 2016, Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital’s Center for Vaccine Development in Houston, and his team of researchers had developed a vaccine to protect against a deadly strain of coronavirus, but could not get funding for testing.
- Dr. Luciana Borio of the former White House National Security Council (NSC) team responsible for pandemics has previously warned of a pandemic flu threat. Borio, the council's director of medical and biodefense preparedness, said in 2018: "The threat of pandemic flu is the number one health security concern. Are we ready to respond? I fear the answer is no." The current administration disbanded this team.
- Going back to 2009, the Director of National Intelligence in its Report has warned of the risk of a pandemic. In 2019, at that time DNI Director Dan Coats stated in his report “The United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.”
The pandemic is not a failure of the government. Thousands of government workers have worked hard to reduce the effects of the pandemic. The pandemic is not a failure of health care workers. Millions of health care workers have provided health care to patients all over the country, often a great personal risk and some have died providing this care.
The pandemic is the failure of a large percentage of political leaders and their followers.
- The anti-science politicians and their followers have cost the US two hundred thousand lives and counting along with trillions of dollars of economic decline and deficit spending.
- The anti-comprehensive health care politicians and their followers have cost the US two hundred thousand lives and counting along with trillions of dollars of economic decline and deficit spending.
- The anti-government politicians and their followers have cost the US two hundred thousand lives and counting along with trillions of dollars of economic decline and deficit spending.
- The tax and borrow politicians and their followers who fund their pet programs but did not fund essential health care and infectious disease programs have cost the US two hundred thousand lives and counting along with trillions of dollars of economic decline and deficit spending.
I would suggest coronavirus was inevitable, but the pandemic along with its personal and economic costs was avoidable. It is a failure of a large percentage of Nationally elected leaders who failed to plan for an inevitable disaster. They are all paid by the US Government to work for us and have failed us terribly.
We have a pivotal election in a few weeks. If any person running for Congress has one or more of the above characteristics, vote for someone else. If you want to make it personal, these politicians and their followers have put your financial future at great risk. And it was avoidable.